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🤷♂️ Reactions to AI 2027
AI 2027 is great in terms of format, and in terms of seeing where good forecasting and reasoning practice takes you, and I think it’s a mistake not to take an acceleration this dramatic seriously. That said, my first reactions were (a) unable to align my expectations with Daniel and Scott, (b) unhappy with how…
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🧬 Some optimistic news on DNA synthesis screening
There are not many reasons for optimism in biosecurity world, so I decided to consciously celebrate something that has gone better than my (relatively pessimistic) baseline expectations: progress on DNA synthesis screening. Last time I properly talked to SecureDNA (2+ years ago), they were very much at proof-of-concept stage. They now have a production-ready software…
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📚🏭 Notes from Freedom’s Forge
GM conversion to wartime production General Motors converted to war production in just 29 days after ending civilian lines and ultimately contributed 10 percent of all US war production. General Motors started up war production only twenty-nine days after ending the civilian line. In the end it would contribute 10 percent of all U.S. war…
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🧬🦠 Nucleic Acid Synthesis: Understanding the starting point
I still occassionally run into very informed people in bio who are surprised to hear about the horsepox synthesis story. Some context Poxviruses are the elephants among human pathogenic viruses, with genome size on the order of 100 kb (compare with SARS-CoV-2 or polio) Yes, you can just synthesize horsepox DNA from scratch, divide into…
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🗽 Living statues
From Bullshit Jobs: Occasionally the very rich hire their fellow human beings to pose as statues on their lawns during parties. Some “real” jobs seem very close to this: although one does not need to stand quite as still, one must also do it for much longer periods of time: Clarence: I worked as a…
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📈 Growth of Christianity in the Roman Empire
Over the course of 300 years, the religion had grown to be about five percent of the population of the empire, or some three million adherents. That rate of growth does not require massive conversions but simply a steady stream of converts. It represents a growth of about 40 percent every 10 years (which happens…
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🌄 The real allegory of the cave
Kogi people (Wikipedia): From birth the Kogi attune their priests, called Mamos (which means sun in Kogi), for guidance, healing, and leadership. The Mamos are not to be confused with shamans or curers but to be regarded as tribal priests who hold highly respected roles in Kogi society. Mamos undergo strict training to assume this…
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🌋 Never mind, Hamming
Shortly before the first field test (you realize that no small scale experiment can be done—either you have a critical mass or you do not), a man asked me to check some arithmetic he had done, and I agreed, thinking to fob it off on some subordinate. When I asked what it was, he said,…
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Sandor Clegane on AI safety
Real Fids
The most primitive tool for untangling out there, but better than nothing
