Real Fids

🤷‍♂️ Reactions to AI 2027

AI 2027 is great in terms of format, and in terms of seeing where good forecasting and reasoning practice takes you, and I think it’s a mistake not to take an acceleration this dramatic seriously. That said, my first reactions were (a) unable to align my expectations with Daniel and Scott, (b) unhappy with how…
🧬 Some optimistic news on DNA synthesis screening

There are not many reasons for optimism in biosecurity world, so I decided to consciously celebrate something that has gone better than my (relatively pessimistic) baseline expectations: progress on DNA synthesis screening. On the other hand, I don’t get the impression that there’s been much progress towards screening beyond database-matching (e.g. using structure or function…
📚🏭 Notes from Freedom’s Forge

GM conversion to wartime production General Motors converted to war production in just 29 days after ending civilian lines and ultimately contributed 10 percent of all US war production. General Motors started up war production only twenty-nine days after ending the civilian line. In the end it would contribute 10 percent of all U.S. war…
🧬🦠 Nucleic Acid Synthesis: Understanding the starting point

I still occassionally run into very informed people in bio who are surprised to hear about the horsepox synthesis story. Some context ⚜️⚜️⚜️ Below are some questions I asked GPT-4o (search enabled). Please let me know if any of the below seems wrong. Which labs were able to produce analogs of SARS-CoV-2 using nucleic acid…
🗽 Living statues

From Bullshit Jobs: Occasionally the very rich hire their fellow human beings to pose as statues on their lawns during parties. Some “real” jobs seem very close to this: although one does not need to stand quite as still, one must also do it for much longer periods of time: Clarence: I worked as a…
📈 Growth of Christianity in the Roman Empire

Over the course of 300 years, the religion had grown to be about five percent of the population of the empire, or some three million adherents. That rate of growth does not require massive conversions but simply a steady stream of converts. It represents a growth of about 40 percent every 10 years (which happens…
🌄 The real allegory of the cave

Kogi people (Wikipedia): From birth the Kogi attune their priests, called Mamos (which means sun in Kogi), for guidance, healing, and leadership. The Mamos are not to be confused with shamans or curers but to be regarded as tribal priests who hold highly respected roles in Kogi society. Mamos undergo strict training to assume this…
🌋 Never mind, Hamming

Shortly before the first field test (you realize that no small scale experiment can be done—either you have a critical mass or you do not), a man asked me to check some arithmetic he had done, and I agreed, thinking to fob it off on some subordinate. When I asked what it was, he said,…
Sandor Clegane on AI safety